Industry Buzz: Supreme Court Declines Chance to End Agony of ACA Uncertainty

If you’re worried about the fate of the Affordable Care Act and was hoping for a quick solution, forget it. On Jan. 21, the U.S. Supreme Court declined a Democratic request to fast-track the current federal case in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the law with a curt one-sentence saying no to rapid review for now but leaving open the possibility for a later date.

So Where Are We Now?

The ACA will remain valid law unless and until the following things happen:

• The Texas case runs its course, i.e., the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5^th Circuit issues a final decision on the merits; and
• The side that loses in the 5^th Circuit appeals to the Supreme Court.

After that, things get iffy. Although everybody expects the Court to accept the case, it could deny the appeal and leave the 5^th Circuit ruling intact. And that would spell doom for the ACA if, as many expect, the 5^th Circuit turns thumbs down on the law. Of course, there’s always the possibility that the 5^th Circuit will uphold the ACA. In that case, a Supreme Court denial to hear the appeal would end the challenge and ensure the law’s survival.

The punchline is that none of this will happen until the 5^th Circuit makes its ruling. The decision the 5^th Circuit issued on Dec. 18 is not such a ruling. On the contrary, the court punted on the chance to rule on the merits and sent the case back down to the lower court to revisit and explain its earlier decision finding the entire ACA law unconstitutional. Why strike down the whole law and not just the individual mandate, the 5^th Circuit asked the court to clarify.

Bottom Line: The 5^th Circuit ruling only prolongs the agony since now the case has to go back down to the lower court, leaving the insurance market and millions of Americans to twist in the wind. The Democratic petition for fast-tracking was a chance for the Supreme Court to end the suspense, one way or another. But now that the Court has said no, the uncertainty will continue for at least another year.