Market Trends: Celebrity Power to Drive Testing Goes Beyond the ‘Angelina Jolie Effect’

The rates of genetic testing among women supposedly soared after Angelina Jolie revealed that she had undergone a double mastectomy to reduce her chances of developing breast cancer after learning that she had a mutation in a gene known as BRCA1. But do celebrities really impact testing rates and consumption of diagnostic products? And if so, how can that power be harnessed to improve public health?

The "Charlie Sheen Effect"
These are some of the questions addressed in a new study published in the July issue of Prevention Science. The study looks at the "Charlie Sheen effect," or spike in sales of rapid in-home HIV test kits after Charlie Sheen publicly disclosed his positive HIV status. That same week, OraQuick sales rose 95%, the researchers found. Sales remained significantly elevated for four more weeks.

OraQuick (OraSure Technologies; Bethlehem, Penn.) is the only Food and Drug Administration-approved rapid in-home HIV test kit available in the United States. US sales of Ora- Quick were evaluated weekly from April 12, 2014, to April 16, 2016, along with Web searches for the terms "test," "tests," or "testing" and "HIV" using Google Trends. Changes in OraQuick sales around Sheen's disclosure based upon expected sales and prediction models using Web searches were assessed.

In total, there were 8,225 more sales than expected following Sheen's disclosure, surpassing orders around the World AIDS Day campaign by a factor of seven. For comparison, OraQuick sales the week of World Aids Day increased significantly, but by only 31%. Following World Aids Day sales returned to expected levels the next week.

Predictive Value of Web Searches
Web searches mirrored OraQuick sales trends, demonstrating their ability to foretell increases in testing. The researchers found that knowing search volumes alone produced sales predictions with an average relative error rate within 7%.

"The public's health decisions are heavily influenced by public figures and reveal an opportunity for the prevention community to target health behaviors when related issues are widely publicized in the media," write the authors led by Jon-Patrick Allem, Ph.D., from University of Southern California in Los Angeles.

Implications for Public Health
The fact increased sales can be predicted by Web searches may provide a future means of planning for public health screening responses to real-time events. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that untested individuals are responsible for most new HIV infections and that seizing on opportunities to increase testing awareness is the most cost-effective HIV prevention strategy. This study can inform how to capitalize on future opportunities to increase screening.

Takeaway: Web searches immediately following celebrity health-related announcements can be used to capitalize on opportunities to drive screening and predict volume increases.